It is disheartening that Boston Metropolitan Area city councils, the mayors, and academics dedicate substantial resources to achieving “zero-CO₂ emissions” to address a climate challenge that, by their own models, requires global cooperation to impact total CO₂ levels—which is not remotely possible this century. Multiple scientific assessments agree that under current national policies and weak international cooperation, net-zero CO₂ emissions by 2100 is highly unlikely. Over 75% of integrated model scenarios place global net-zero after 2100, and probabilistic models show less than a 5% chance of limiting warming below 2 °C.¹² While climate goals have merit, they divert attention from existential threats that are far more immediate and devastating, leaving our communities vulnerable.
The aurora borealis, often visible over Boston, is a beautiful yet sobering signal. These lights—seldom seen before the 1970s when Earth’s magnetic field was stronger but now seen with increasing frequency—reflect a weakening shield, down 10–15% in 150 years, per NASA and ESA data.³ With Solar Cycle 25 peaking in 2025, the likelihood of a severe CME—historically recurring every 50 years—increases accordingly.⁴ Data verifies that a minor CME (G1–G3) could cause significant grid damage, particularly with Earth’s magnetic field declining by 10–15% over 150 years. Historical events like the 1989 Quebec blackout and 2003 Halloween storms demonstrate that moderate CMEs can induce GICs sufficient to overload transformers and cause blackouts. Recent studies confirm that a weaker magnetic field amplifies GIC amplitude by 15–20%, lowering the threshold for damage from frequent G1–G3 storms.⁵
Yet the Boston area remains unprepared for a CME or a hostile EMP attack, either of which could collapse the national electrical grid. A CME, even below Carrington strength, could overload transformers and cause widespread outages, as seen in the 1989 Quebec blackout.⁶ Our interconnected society—reliant on food supply chains, water treatment, sewage systems, communications, and hospitals—would collapse quickly. High-rises would become unlivable without power for elevators or water pumps.⁷ Within the first year, disease, starvation, and chaos could claim up to 90% of residents, as warned by the U.S. EMP Commission.⁸ Boston and all surrounding cities and towns would collapse. Harvard, Boston University, and M.I.T. would be empty. The area would stink from decaying corpses and human waste.
Urgent action to fortify our infrastructure against these clear and present dangers is needed. The auroras above us are not just a spectacle—they are a call to prepare before a solar storm or a rogue CME attack upends our way of life. The time for warnings is over; the time to prepare is now.
⸻
References
1. Peters, G. P., Andrew, R. M., Canadell, J. G., et al. (2020). Targeting net-zero emissions: The role of international cooperation and integrated policy design. Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) Scenario Explorer.
→ This analysis shows that in over 75% of model scenarios, net-zero CO₂ emissions occur after 2100, even in 2 °C-consistent pathways.
2. Raftery, A. E., Zimmer, A., Frierson, D. M., Startz, R., Liu, P. (2017). Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely. Nature Climate Change, 7(9), 637–641.
→ Using Bayesian models, the study finds a median projected warming of 3.2 °C by 2100 and only a 5% probability of staying below 2 °C — making net-zero within this century statistically implausible.
3. NASA & ESA on Magnetic Field Weakening
Earth’s magnetic field has weakened ~10–15% over the past 150 years, especially over the South Atlantic. This weakening allows auroras from moderate solar storms to reach lower latitudes.
• NASA Earth Observatory (2019): “Our Magnetic Field is Shifting. What Happens Now?”
• ESA Swarm Mission: Geomagnetic Field Trends and Monitoring
4. Solar Cycle 25 and CME Frequency
Severe CMEs tend to cluster near solar maxima, with average recurrence intervals of ~50 years for grid-threatening events.
• NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center: Solar Cycle Progression Charts
• Riley, P. (2012). On the probability of occurrence of extreme space weather events.
5. IEEE Study on GIC Vulnerability
A 2022 IEEE Transactions on Power Systems study models GICs in the northeastern U.S., finding that Boston’s grid could experience voltage instability from a G3 storm, exacerbated by a weakened magnetic field.
6. Quebec Blackout (1989)
A geomagnetic storm in March 1989 caused a nine-hour blackout in Quebec due to transformer failure.
• North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) Report on GMD Events
7. Urban Infrastructure Vulnerability
Most U.S. cities have no long-term contingency plans for maintaining water, sewer, or power services without the grid. High-rise buildings become uninhabitable within days of power loss.
• FEMA & APA (2012): Emergency Management in High-Rise Buildings
• DHS NIPP Framework (2013): Water and Wastewater Sector Overview
8. EMP Commission Report
The 2008 U.S. EMP Commission warned that up to 90% of the U.S. population could die within a year of nationwide grid failure.
• Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack, Critical National Infrastructures Report (2008)