City governments often assume that the federal government will come to their aid during catastrophic emergencies. However, scenarios such as nuclear strikes, high-altitude EMP (electromagnetic pulse) attacks, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), or pandemics could render the federal government incapable of assisting. These events would leave cities hollowed-out and uninhabitable. The harsh truth is that many U.S. cities, including Boston, are dangerously unprepared to survive on their own.
1. Catastrophic Scenarios and Their Effects
Several disaster scenarios could devastate cities nationwide:
• Nuclear Strikes: A 10-megaton nuclear detonation over a major city would destroy infrastructure and render large areas uninhabitable due to radiation.
• EMP Attacks: A high-altitude EMP event could cripple the nation’s electrical grid, halting transportation, communications, and food supply chains.
• CMEs: A severe CME, like the 1859 Carrington Event, could damage power grids globally, causing cascading failures in modern infrastructure.
• Pandemics: A highly contagious, lethal disease would disrupt workforce capacity, halt supply chains, and overwhelm medical systems.
In each scenario, cities would need massive resources to survive independently for years.
2. Resource Needs: Boston Case Study
Using Boston (population ~4.9 million) as an example, we calculated the resources required for survival over 36 months, assuming complete disruption of external aid and supply chains.
A. Food
• Requirement: 2,000 kcal/person/day for 4.9 million people for 36 months.
• Calculation:
4.9 million people × 2,000 kcal/day × 1,095 days = 10.7 trillion kcal.
• Approx. 8.9 billion MREs (1,200 kcal/pack) are required.
• Cost: At $7/unit, the cost for food would total approximately $62.3 billion.
B. Medical Supplies
• Needs:
• Basic medical supplies (bandages, disinfectants, syringes, etc.).
• Pharmaceuticals and vaccines.
• Medical equipment (ventilators, diagnostic machines, PPE).
• Estimation: Based on FEMA’s disaster response benchmarks and healthcare costs:
$1,000/person/year for basic medical supplies and care during emergencies.
Over 36 months for 4.9 million people:
4.9 million × $1,000/year × 3 years = $14.7 billion.
• Cost: Approximately $15 billion.
C. Water and Waste Management
• Water:
• Each person requires ~1 gallon/day for drinking and basic hygiene.
• Total water needed over 36 months:
4.9 million people × 1 gallon/day × 1,095 days = 5.4 billion gallons.
• Mobile water purification units or desalination systems would be necessary.
• Waste Management:
• Systems to process sewage and solid waste for public health.
• Portable waste treatment units and sanitation supplies are required.
• Cost: Combined water and waste systems would cost approximately $10 billion, including infrastructure and consumables.
D. Energy
• Requirement: Energy for cooking, heating, and essential operations.
• Renewable energy systems (solar arrays, wind turbines).
• Microgrids with energy storage (batteries or small nuclear reactors).
• Cost: Estimated at $15 billion for large-scale decentralized energy solutions.
3. Total Cost for Boston
The combined cost to prepare Boston for 36 months of self-sufficiency in a catastrophic scenario would be approximately $102.3 billion, broken down as follows:
• Food: $62.3 billion.
• Medical supplies: $15 billion.
• Water and waste management: $10 billion.
• Energy: $15 billion.
4. Current State of Preparedness
Currently, Boston, like most U.S. cities, lacks these reserves. Despite the clear risk of large-scale disasters, investments in preparedness are minimal. Instead, many city leaders focus on long-term climate goals, such as achieving carbon neutrality, without sufficient attention to the immediate threats posed by nuclear, EMP, CME, or pandemic events.
5. Recommendations
To mitigate the risks:
1. Stockpiling: Establish reserves of food (MREs, dehydrated foods), medical supplies, and water purification systems.
2. Decentralized Infrastructure: Invest in renewable energy microgrids and localized food production (urban agriculture, hydroponics).
3. Federal and State Funding: Secure dedicated disaster preparedness funding through federal grants and state budgets.
4. Public Awareness: Educate citizens on personal disaster preparedness (e.g., food preservation, emergency kits).
5. Integrated Planning: Align climate initiatives with disaster resilience to ensure comprehensive urban safety.
Conclusion
The reality is stark: catastrophic disasters could devastate U.S. cities, leaving them to survive independently for extended periods. As Boston’s case shows, preparing for these scenarios requires substantial investment—$102.3 billion for food, medical supplies, water, and energy systems. Without these preparations, cities remain dangerously vulnerable to becoming hollowed-out shells of their former selves in the aftermath of a disaster. It’s time for city leaders to prioritize comprehensive disaster preparedness alongside other initiatives to ensure urban resilience in an uncertain future.